Shohei Ohtani announced he is signing a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the top line number may be eye popping, considering Ohtani's unique ability to pitch, hit, and field, if you squint you can justify it.
A top of the rotation pitcher costs between $30 million and $43 million a year and a .300 hitter who can hit with power can get paid about that much too. Effectively, Ohtani is two All-Star level talents in one player, but the problem with signing him to a deal of this length (and cost) is that he's now had two major elbow surgeries (in case you were wondering, a functioning elbow is important in hitting but REALLY important in pitching). If Ohtani can't pitch or is not the pitcher he once was because of his previous injuries, this starts looking like a not-so-great contract. Moreover, it pays him $70 million a year until he is 39 years old, an age where player performance notably declines (just ask the Angels how their contract with Albert Pujols worked out). Finally, the Dodgers don't lack for hitting, it's pitching that they need but the money they just gave Ohtani further hamstrings their ability to bolster their starting rotation.
Yes, it's a splashy signing and yes if you are going to pay someone this kind of money, a guy who has Cy Young level pitching talent and Triple Crown level hitting talent is the logical choice. But given Ohtani's injury history, baseball's luxury taxes, the Dodgers' other needs, and the vagaries of the post-season, this looks like a classic case of overpaying.
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