The Washington Nationals Won The World Series

The first time I wrote about the Washington Nationals was back in 2012. The team was generating some buzz in spring training, but was thought to be a year away from contending. The Nats were young, a little brash, and ended up overachieving, posting 98 wins and the best record in the National League. They  entered a five-game divisional series against the St. Louis Cardinals expecting to make a deep run, maybe even to the World Series. The series was hard fought, and not without controversy, as the team had shut down Stephen Strasburg, still recovering from Tommy John surgery and on an innings limit. 

I still remember watching Game 5, or at least enough of it to hit "record" on the DVR and go to bed while the game was still going on, safe in the 6-1 lead we held and thinking I would just watch the inevitable victory the following morning. That ... did not happen. In fact, the Cardinals' comeback was the first of a succession of playoff failures that turned a deep and talented group into a jittery mess that would find new and inventive ways to throw up on themselves when the lights were brightest. In 2014, it was Jordan Zimmermann being pulled in the 9th inning of Game 1 against the Giants. In 2016, it was Clayton Kershew shutting down the Nats in relief in the deciding game. In 2017, it was Max Scherzer blowing up against the Cubs. Four division titles resulted in precisely zero trips to the NLCS, much less the World Series. 

Interspersed with those failures were the more pedestrian ones that happened in the off years. The Nats were always a World Series favorite, but in 2013 and 2015 they did not even make the playoffs, barely scratching out a .500 record while watching embarrassing episodes like reliever Jonathan Papelbon choking star right fielder Bryce Harper and a revolving door at manager, the skipper being replaced every couple of years in hopes of cracking the code to playoff success while lesser teams like the Kansas City Royals somehow figured out a way to win it all.

Speaking of Harper, his final season in D.C. was another example of the team’s well-earned reputation for underachieving. Handed a two-time defending division winner that had won 97 and 95 regular season games in the prior years, new manager Dave Martinez guided the team to a .500 record and they missed the playoffs. Harper alit for division foe Philadelphia and most baseball experts wrote off the Nats in favor of the deep and young Atlanta Braves or the Philly team that had just swiped DC's brightest star. The team's awful start (19-31) reinforced the belief that the team’s time had passed, that the proverbial window had closed on a team that had never reached its potential.

But then a funny thing happened. The team started to click. In fact that if you ignore that wobbly 50 game start, the Nats were the best team in baseball. Most observers cite the signing of Gerardo Parra (who had been cut by the San Francisco Giants) as the turning point for the season and there is no question the clubhouse dancing, the joy for the game, the Stras-sandwich (Parra and Anibal Sanchez swallowing the big right-hander in a group embrace), all of it was much different than prior years, when the team had a more stoic, business-like approach to the game. But there was more. The star turn of 20-year-old Juan Soto, the MVP-caliber play of third baseman Anthony Rendon, the solid core of veterans like Kurt Suzuki, Brian Dozier, and Matt Adams all played a part in the team’s resurgence. 

But here is the thing. Even as the team’s odds to make the playoffs skyrocketed to “mortal lock” level, I expected the other shoe to drop because it always did. I carried two incompatible thoughts in my head - that the Nats were a great regular season team that would break my heart in the playoffs. I lowered my expectations. I resisted the Trea Turner "I Love My Team" tweets, the Baby Shark fad, all of it. Which meant this playoff run was more torture than celebration. Even after the late game comeback against the Brewers. Even after the back-to-back home runs by Soto and Rendon in Game 5 against Kershaw and the Kendrick grand slam that  (finally) sent the team to an NLCS. Even after Sanchez's gem against the Cardinals and the sweep that happened a few days later. Up 2-0 against the Astros, I reevaluated my skepticism just in time to watch the Astros win all three games in D.C. "A HA. THERE IT IS." I thought. Finally, *there* was the team that would break my heart. Again, I turned to rationalization. Making the World Series was good enough. Winning two games against a 107-win team was nothing to be ashamed of, but my heart ignored what my eyes had seen all of October - a team that refused to quit.  

There was a glimmer of hope. I suspected Strasburg would deal in Game 6 because I remember an even more iconic game that is unfortunately forgotten to Nats history - his elimination game performance against the Cubs in 2017. There, on a rainy and windy 50 degree day in Chicago, Strasburg threw 7 innings of three-hit, shut out ball to force a deciding Game 5. And while he got off to a bumpy start against the Astros in Game 6, the Cardiac Nats came through again. 

Writers better than me have already waxed philosophical about the stunning Game 7, the unlikeliest of outcomes had actually happened. A team that never advanced out of a divisional series had come back, time and again, late and behind against the best teams in all of baseball, and conquered them all. When I think back on the Nats’ title run, that is what amazes me. The gut punches the Nats always seemed to take, they turned around and inflicted on their foes. Whereas in prior years, a wonky call, like the one against Trea Turner in Game 6, would cascade into defeat, this year, the team brushed it off. 

The World Series title was also validation for Mike Rizzo’s work. The team he assembled, the high priced free agents (Scherzer, Corbin), the home grown talent (Zimmerman, Strasburg, Soto, Robles, Rendon), the players we practically stole from other teams (Turner), and the spare parts that no one else wanted (Kendrick, Parra) all came together. Due credit to Dave Martinez, whose head I and many others wanted on a spike outside Nats Park, and proved us all wrong; whatever mojo he had cooking worked. 

The Nats have always been an easy team to root for. When they were a team of misfit toys like Elijah Dukes and Lastings Miledge, of John Patterson and Nick Johnson, it was enough that baseball had returned to our hometown. As the team grew more competitive, bulldogs like Jordan Zimmermann and Wilson Ramos were character guys you could not help but like. Free agents breezed through (a fwaaaa shout out to Daniel Murphy) and unlike a certain owner of another Washington sports team, the Lerners usually fell on the right line of signing the checks as opposed to meddling in personnel decisions (we will just pretend the Rafael Soriano signing that crushed Drew Storen’s spirit never happened). 

I think a lot about the Nats. From the hot stove, through spring training, and the six months of the season, the team is never far from my mind. I still have a clipping from the team’s first game at RFK, Livan Hernandez in mid wind-up, those gaudy, gold-trimmed uniforms not yet making way to the cleaner red-white-and-blue and Curly W combination. The cursed words I have muttered and the joy I have experienced watching something as trivial as a well-turned double play or a slider that drops off the table. I can still tell you where I was when Strasburg debuted on June 8, 2010 against the Pirates and when he tore his UCL a few months later. I’ve read more rose-tinted Boswell columns than I can remember and spent most of this year listening to Kornheiser’s kvelling at the never-quite-right bullpen. 

I think about Ryan Zimmerman a lot too. He was the team’s first pick in 2005, an accomplished third baseman 75 miles away at the University of Virginia - practically a home town boy. Zim came of age with the Nats. As a slick fielding third baseman with a flair for the dramatic walk off home run he played the game the right way, a professional on and off the field. I watched his fortunes fall as injuries and a bad case of the throwing yips relegated him to a part-time role as first baseman. He was with the team when it was a 100-loss basement dweller and a near-100 win regular season juggernaut. Zimmerman was the first Nat to hold the NL trophy after they clinched the pennant and he was on the field when the final swing and miss of the World Series delivered D.C. it’s first baseball championship in 95 years. I was thrilled for him more than anyone else. 

I cried a lot watching the Nats this post season. I know that also sounds stupid, but there is a bond between a team and its fans that can cause that type of reaction. Mostly, they were tears of joy. Watching clubhouse celebrations, trophies being lofted above heads, hugs all around. I yelled and screamed and did all the stuff you do when there is something irrationally important to you that is impossible to explain to someone not similarly invested. My team won. Finally.

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It Was Not Dusty's Fault

In recent years, no baseball team has won more preseason World Series titles than the Washington Nationals. Like clockwork, experts and prognosticators gush over the team’s talent and promise that this is the year they will get over the hump and bring the nation’s capital its first World Series title in almost 100 years. The expectations are understandable. Since 2012, the Nats have won four NL East titles and more regular season games than any other team except the Dodgers. Their pitching staff is anchored by Max Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young award winner and their number two, Stephen Strasburg, is becoming a threat to pick up his first. The everyday lineup stars Bryce Harper, the 2015 league MVP and other young stars like Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. 

Of course, the team’s futility in the playoffs is well-documented. For all their regular season success, the Nats have been ushered out in what feels like successively more excruciating ways each October. The most recent failure cost the team’s manager, Dusty Baker, his job, even though he had piloted the team to division titles in both his years at the helm and 95 and 97 wins, respectively. Exit Dusty, enter Dave Martinez, the Cubs former bench coach who was expected to bring some of that Joe Maddon magic from the Windy City.

But in another year of World Series hopes, the Nats are sinking, and sinking fast. The team got off to a strong start by sweeping a three-game series in Cincinnati, but that has turned out to be fool’s gold. Not only are the Reds by far the worst team in the league, but since then, the Nats are 7-11. They are in fourth place in the division, four-and-a-half games behind the Mets. And here’s the thing, commentators can talk about slow starts and unusually cold weather, but for the Nats to get to 90 wins this year, they will need to go 80-61 (.567), to get to 95 wins, their mark in 2016, they will need to go 85-56 (.602) and to get to 97 wins, they will need to win 87 of their last 141 games, a .617 clip. In other words, a team playing .500 ball will have to play better baseball than division winning teams did over the entire season. 

Granted, the Mets and Phillies, the early division leaders, will come back to the pack. The Mets are relying on pitching that has not held up in recent years and the Phillies are a (mostly) young team that as recently as last year, was the league’s worst. But the Nats cannot count on other teams’ failures and the squad this year does not inspire much hope. Ryan Zimmerman, last year’s comeback player of the year, is back to his pre-2017 production, which is to say, very little. Adam Eaton, who the Nats gave up their three top pitching prospects for, missed most of last season with a knee injury, and after playing a handful of games this year, is again injured. While Harper is playing well, he’s getting little help from the rest of the squad, and the one bat the team desperately needs, Daniel Murphy, is still two weeks from returning. The pitching has been mediocre, the bullpen shaky (shocker), and yet, Martinez seems to be avoiding blame while offering precious little in terms of solutions. 

This state of affairs is depressing for a Nats fan. Everyone understands this may be Harper’s last year with the team and management was handed a surprise gift when last off season’s free agent class lingered far longer and many players signed for far less than expected. The Lerners are the richest owners in the sport and can be profligate spenders when they want to be, but they could not pony up $75 million over three years for Jake Arrietta? They did not think that a better back-up plan at first base than Matt Adams made sense? 

With Harper and Murphy a year away from free agency and Rendon a year behind then, why the Lerners did not go all in, especially when so many free agents were in the bargain bin, is beyond me. And what message does it send to Harper, Murphy, and Rendon that you are not willing to spend when the championship window is open? I know there is “a lot of baseball” left to be played, but we have also seen this movie before. In both 2013 and 2015, coming off dominating regular seasons that ended in playoff heartbreak, the team fell flat, missing the playoffs and finishing just above .500. It may be too early to say that will happen again, but the early returns do not look promising. 

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I Am Tired Of Waiting For Next Year

On the evening of October 12, 2012, I went to bed early, knowing my hometown team, the Washington Nationals, had the decisive fifth game of their playoff series against the St. Louis Cardinals well in hand. Entering the fifth inning, the Nats led 6-1, having come back from a two games to one deficit and with 21-game winner Gio Gonzalez on the mound. So, I hit record on my DVR and hit the hay, eager to watch the rest of the game the following morning. Little did I know that night would begin a run of frustration, disappointment, and heartbreak that continued five years to the day later when the Nats lost another Game 5 at home, this time to the Chicago Cubs. 

On one level, you have to hand it to the Nats. They have set an impossibly high bar for futility in such a short period of time. They have lost games (and series) because of fluke plays (non-call after Wieters got popped in the head by Baez?), one-hit wonders (CURSE YOU PETE KOZMA), epic performances (Clayton Kershaw in relief anyone?), questionable managerial decisions (looking at you Matt Williams for pulling Zimmermann in Game 1 of the 2014 NLDS), and of course, the epic meltdown I watched on tape-delay. 

After this most recent collapse, the natural question was whether the Nats are chokers. Some have said these losses are not choke jobs, that  instead, the Nats have simply been victim of an odd combination of bad luck, bad breaks, and bad calls. I don’t buy it. On paper, that is, by record, the Nats were better than all four teams they have lost to over the past five years. In each series they had home field advantage. Each Nats playoff team has been led by a man who won a World Series as a player and manager (Davey Johnson), as a player and managed in the World Series as a manager (Dusty Baker) or a guy who played for three World Series teams, winning one (Matt Williams). While the 2012 team was not that experienced, it was anchored by Jayson Werth, who had been signed the year before to provide precisely the type of “veteran leadership” that was needed in that brutal loss but every other playoff flameout had a roster full of players with plenty of playoff experience. 

The irony is that there is not really a lot that can be done. On paper, they have few flaws. The one major problem this season, the bullpen, was addressed before the trade deadline, but other than Werth’s departure, which will immediately be filled by either Michael Taylor or Adam Eaton, who missed most of the year with a knee injury, and maybe upgrading at catcher, the team has few moves to make. Switching managers? What is the point? They have had well-credentialed managers who wear World Series rings and two of whom had won more than 1,500 games each as managers and it did not matter. Plus, what kind of message would it send to have a fourth manager helming the team in the last six years? 

And that is what makes the Nats’ situation so frustrating. They are so good, the losses are that much more painful to watch. But going forward, the pain could be more acute and the good times could end. The team missed the playoffs the year after their division wins in 2012 and 2014 and player health is one of the great variables in sports (just ask this year’s New York Mets). More importantly, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy will be free agents after next season and Anthony Rendon the year after. The Lerners may try to avoid the drama and sign Harper to a mammoth contract, or lock down Murphy or Rendon, but one (or all) of them may leave, creating huge voids in a roster that is right now one of the deepest in baseball. 

Occam’s Razor says that instead of looking for a complex answer, the simple one is usually true. With the Nats, the simple one is, they choke when the lights are brightest. 

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Previewing the 2016 Washington Nationals

As a born-and-bred Washingtonian, I have often remarked that the Redskins are like a first marriage that ends in divorce and the Nationals are a happy, second marriage. The former is wrapped up in a lot of conflicting emotions while the latter offers a purer, but mellower affection.

This has been true whether Livo was tossing out the first pitch at RFK in 2005 or the franchise was circling the drain in 2009 and 2010. Who cared? If you grew up without a baseball team, just being able to wear the “Curly W” cap with live human beings hitting and fielding at RFK was enough. By 2012, a new stadium had been broken in and a swarm of young talent resulted in a 98-win season and a National League East pennant. But is it possible that the franchise’s high water mark was reached over two nights in October of that year when Jayson Werth hit a walk-off home run to win Game 4 of the National League Divisional Series with the St. Louis Cardinals and the team ran out to a quick 6-0 lead at the end of the 3^rd inning of Game 5 before melting down spectacularly in the top of the 9^th inning?

At the time, losing to the Cardinals was brutal but did not seem history-changing. After all, the Nats went into 2013 with the same stacked line-up and their deep reserve of young talent appeared to have a several-year “window” of opportunity ahead of it. But even as the team has accumulated the fourth-most regular season wins in all of baseball over the past four seasons, success has been elusive. The 2013 team had major injuries and failed to make the playoffs. The 2014 team bounced back with 96 wins but lost a heartbreaking 18-inning playoff game to the San Francisco Giants (a questionable decision by then-skipper Matt Williams to pull Jordan Zimmermann in the top of the 9^th will be endlessly debated) before being ousted in four games, and the 2015 squad was overtaken by the upstart Mets and their arsenal of flamethrowing young arms.

Entering the 2016 season, the Nats are at best a second-tier contender and a number of personnel decisions have eroded my once blissful feeling about the team. It was easy to root for the Nats when they sucked and it was exciting to watch the team blossom as young, homegrown talent like Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Ryan Zimmerman, Drew Storen, and Danny Espinosa blended with strategic pick-ups like Wilson Ramos and Gio Gonzalez and hotshot draft picks like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper to become a contender.

But the Nats got too cute by half and began toying with clubhouse chemistry and fan loyalty, making splashy signings (Rafael Soriano, 2 years, $28 million, Max Scherzer, 7 years, $210 million) and questionable trades (hi, Jonathan Papelbon!) while seeming not to value the importance of taking care of their own or investing in less costly, but important middle relievers and bench players. The huge contract handed to Scherzer could have been used to resign Zimmermann AND Desmond (and have some money to spare) and Papelbon literally strangled Bryce Harper in the clubhouse. Oddly, while Papelbon was not released, the shrapnel hit poor Drew Storen, who got dealt in the offseason after twice being demoted from his closer’s spot even though he had notched more than 40 saves in 2011 and was on pace for at least 40 in 2015 before the inexplicable acquisition of Papelbon at the trade deadline. That move only happened because the team had a lights out (and beloved fan favorite) setup man in Tyler Clippard, but dealt him before the 2015 season because they did not want to pay him $8 million (we’re on the hook for $11 million with Papelbon this season.)

This offseason, instead of resigning Zimmermann (who took a relatively modest $110 million from the Tigers), the Nats tried to throw money around wildly, at Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Yeonis Cespedes and anyone else (hi, Daniel Murphy!) who would take it. It is all of a piece with the seeming schizophrenic nature of team management. On the one hand, they will hand out a nine-figure contract to a free agent like Scherzer but refuse to eat the modest cost of releasing a clubhouse cancer like Papelbon or reward a team-drafted and cultivated pitcher like Zimmermann. While we may not miss shorter term pick-ups like Denard Span or Doug Fister, they too had ingratiated themselves with the fan base and those losses, coupled with the departures of Zimmermann and Desmond, will result in a much different team taking the field in April.

And the changes are not over. Looming at the end of this season are the potential departures of Stephen Strasburg and Wilson Ramos and two seasons later, reigning MVP Bryce Harper. Missing is the definition of the “Nationals Way.” Is it to cultivate a strong farm system that consistently stocks the team with young talent and is enhanced by strategic free agent signings and trades or is it a team that will dump that home grown talent when it gets too expensive while at the same time handing out enormous contracts to players with no ties to the organization whose contracts will weigh down the team’s future flexibility? 

Lastly, what message is the team sending when it fires a skipper a year removed from winning Manager of the Year but will keep a player who physically assaulted the team’s best player in the dugout?  The Nationals are now on their third manager in four seasons, reduced a lights-out starting pitching rotation into a mediocrity, and has been left scrambling to fill middle relief and infield positions that were either neglected or the team opted against resolving for years. Meanwhile, the Cubs are the new Nats, stockpiled top to bottom with young talent, the Mets have a starting rotation for the ages, and the Giants and Cardinals loom as perennial contenders because of enormously effective general and field management.

Perhaps this would matter less if the team had not tasted success or if the players we have bonded with were not so unceremoniously dumped. But the truth is the Nats are not nearly as likable as they once were and have become both underachieving and unwise in their decision making. I am not quite ready for another DC-sports team divorce, but then again, second marriages dissolve at even greater rates than first ones do. Stay tuned.

Follow me on Twitter - @scarylawyerguy

The Fall of the Nats

Three years ago, the Washington Nationals burst into prominence with a young team full of potential and an old-school manager full of swagger. The team, coming off years of sub-.500 records, broke out, winning a league-high 98 games with a pitching rotation loaded with young arms and burgeoning everyday talent. The team suffered a crushing Game 5 loss in the National League Division Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, but most baseball people assumed it was a question of when, not if, the team would make it to the World Series. The team had a "window" when their young stars would still be under manageable contracts and Davey Johnson was a proven winner with a World Series ring and a no-fucks-to-give attitude that had him proudly proclaiming "world series or bust" when spring training opened the following February.

Flash forward to the depressing final days of the 2015 season and the question of a trip to the World Series is just the opposite - no longer a matter of when, but if. The team was passed by the Mets and will not even make the playoffs this year. How did we get here and what should the team do in order to contend in 2016 and beyond? The 2015 campaign began with sky high expectations. The Max Scherzer signing appeared to solidify one of, if not the deepest rotations in baseball. Bryce Harper was ready to fulfill his potential, and younger players like Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond were expected to continue playing at an all-star level. 

While it is fair to apportion some of the blame on factors outside anyone's control, injuries crushed the team from top to bottom - Denard Span, Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Doug Fister, and Stephen Strasburg all missed significant playing time - every team has to deal with injuries during the season and the team was still in first place at the All-Star break. No, the problem was not simply injuries, there were greater factors at work:

• Trading For Papelbon: It is no coincidence that the Mets flew past the Nats around the trading deadline. While the Amazin's picked up utility players, relief pitching, and Yeonis Cespedes (admittedly, I don't think anyone expected him to do what he has done), the Nats sole move was taking on Papelbon's $13 million contract and demoting Drew Storen, who was having the best season of his career, to a setup role. Having questioned Storen's ability once before in signing Rafael Soriano before the 2013 season, it should not have been surprising that Storen imploded when the front office questioned his talent again. Sadly, Storen's old running mate, Tyler Clippard (who the Nats foolishly traded in the off-season) was available, but instead of bringing back a quality set-up man (a team need who landed with the Mets instead) and restoring some good clubhouse karma, Mike Rizzo brought in a cancer who has done nothing to help the team contend.
• Matt Williams: Handing the keys to a Ferrari to a 16-year old is probably unwise unless the car is simply going in a straight line slowly, but let him out on the highway and bad things will happen. So it has been with Matt Williams. As long as he was not called upon to make difficult decisions, he was fine, but he was woefully out managed in the NLDS by Bruce Bochy and his poor handling of this year's pitching staff has been well documented. Simply put, he is out of his league, not experienced enough as a manager to make the types of choices a more seasoned skipper would make. Too bad we had one of those, but he was run out of town because he was too nice to players or something. 
• Mike Rizzo: I hate to diss Rizzo, who I have written about favorably in the past, but for all the credit he gets for building a contender (and rightly so), he deserves scorn for more recent decisions, be it the aforementioned Soriano deal, trading away Clippard, failing to resign either Ian Desmond or Jordan Zimmermann (more on them later), or the head scratching signing of Scherzer when the team could have used that $210 million in other ways and to fill other needs, Rizzo's track record of late has not been good. The Papelbon trade is the kind of karmic kick in the balls anyone could have seen coming a mile away. 
• The Lerners: For billionaires, the Lerner family has a frustrating penchant for being cheap and profligate without explanation. I will never understand why it was unwise to give Clippard $8 million for one year when he was the linchpin of the bullpen but ok to give Scherzer $210 million when he was past the age of 30 and a player (Zimmermann) two years younger and home grown, could have been re-signed for less money. 
• Dissing Home Grown Talent: It sends an incredibly poor message when you spend big to bring in free agent talent but let home grown talent, particularly home grown talent that has been with the team for so long, walk out the door, as is likely to happen in the off-season when Desmond and Zimmermann will become free agents. This is a particularly unsettling trend as players like Strasburg, Harper, and Rendon become free agents in the next few years. 

So, what to do? 

• Stephen Strasburg: Speaking of Strasburg … It is hard to know if the team has messed with his head between the innings limits, pitching to contact, and expectations, or if he simply is a diamond in need of additional polishing, but he is a free agent after next season and the team needs to figure out if they want to fish or cut bait (and get some decent pieces back for him in a trade). 
• Get A Manager That Knows What The Fuck He Is Doing: Williams is only signed through next season, so eat what's left on his contract and get a manager in here that does not need on-the-job training.
• Show Some Love To Your Own Players: Pull out the checkbook and resign Zimmermann and make a more concerted effort to show the players you have drafted or traded for early in their careers that being a part of the franchise means something. 
• Make Trades: That said, dumping Werth on an AL team who could use his bat and have him DH part time and floating Gonzalez, who is still affordable at $9 million a year but clearly has maxed out his potential, makes sense. The Scherzer contract is going to be an albatross, might as well lighten the load in places where we can to free up money for other priorities. 
• Drew Storen: The relationship with Storen is probably beyond repair at this point, but the fact is, he is still only 28 years old and was having an outstanding season until Papelbon was foolishly added to the bullpen. While baseball is a business, Storen is way too talented to give up on. 

This shit matters because the Mets, Cubs, and Pirates are all loaded with young talent, the Dodgers basically print money, and the Cardinals and Giants are only two of the best run franchises in all of Major League Baseball who between them have won four world series in the last 10 years. If the Nats don't take steps to improve, their window may have already closed. 

Follow me on Twitter - @scarylawyerguy